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Not On Shaky Ground — But In Quicksand

A report from IFR. “The speed of the turnaround is remarkable given Zillow had raised over US$1bn in the securitisation market in the last three months. ‘Everyone is trying to figure out what’s going on. I want to know if the repayment might be accelerated. Will I be protected? I’m not taking a loss in just three months,’ said one investor who participated in the debut issue, ZH Trust 2021-1.”

“A buyside source familiar with the Zillow RMBS said it had been too early for Zillow to tap the RMBS market – especially considering the complex structure and unstable cashflows. But many fund managers had been eager to own paper backed by a higher-yielding asset, even if was unproven. ‘The reach for yield and a kind of leap of faith from debt investors rarely make a good combination,’ the source said.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Zillow spent millions in Houston picking up homes to sell at a mark-up during a red-hot pandemic housing market. Now, amid cooling home prices, the company has asked for less than what it paid for 63 percent of the 155 Houston homes it hoped to sell, according to Business Insider. If the company were to sell all of the listings at price, it would face a median loss of $12,576 per home, according to the analysis. As home prices stopped rising in several major markets, the company’s hopes for profit turned into damage control.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “Those who bought homes from Opendoor didn’t always have stellar reviews — including Hazel Aguayo. Aguayo identified a very specific aspect of buying through the company that played to her advantage: Opendoor employees she came into contact with weren’t based in Southern California. That enabled her to successfully negotiate her family’s purchase to about $37,000 below the list price by pointing to other houses listed for sale in a less attractive part of Duarte. ‘Had the agent been local, they would know not to compare this house from those, because this house is in the best neighborhood,’ Aguayo said.”

The Orlando Business Journal in Florida. “The rush of buyers in the U.S. housing market last year and earlier this year was ‘like a gold rush,’ but those days appear to be over, PNC Financial Services Group Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi told Orlando Business Journal. Local homes sales fell month-over-month for the third straight month in September, dropping 5% to 3,879 sales, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. Meanwhile, the median price fell for the first time since September 2020, ticking down from $320,000 to $318,000.”

“Veronica Figueroa, CEO of Orlando-based real estate firm Figueroa Team by EXP Realty, told OBJ any price declines are unlikely to be an indictment of the market. ‘If we do see a dip in pricing, I don’t really think it’s because the market’s going down. I think we’re going to start seeing a lot more negotiation power and people exchanging time and peace of mind for money.'”

From Fox 17 West Michigan. “If you were trying to buy a house at the beginning of the year and gave up the search, now might be your chance. ‘The competition has gotten a little easier, so people who have been frustrated with the process, which is easy to get into that kind of a situation, moving back into the market may be your smartest move right now,’ CEO of Hall Financial, David Hall, said. If you’re a current homeowner and haven’t taken advantage of the current low-interest rates, Hall suggests refinancing sooner rather than later. Home equity could be better spent elsewhere.”

“‘They’re utilizing all the equity they’ve gained in their home, to pay off some high-interest credit cards. Or maybe do a remodel. But that equity is precious,’ Hall said.”

The Bay View Compass in Wisconsin. “In the past year, local social media has been punctuated with pictures of newly sold Bay View homes that achieved jaw-dropping prices. The fevered market is not unique to Bay View, or Milwaukee. The phenomenon is nationwide. Not all the realtors interviewed for this story see the same market trend over the next year or two years. Karen Block and Cheryl Bennet sense a change, though neither predicts it will be dramatic.”

“‘It’s slowing down,’ Block said. ‘Some of it is seasonality. Some of it could be buyer fatigue, so people have pulled out of the market. Also, (now) there’s 20 percent more homes on the market than there were back in the spring and a year ago, so the old supply and demand. There’s more homes on the market, so there are more buyers who can get in.'”

“Bennet agrees. ‘Inventory has been increasing in Bay View and elsewhere, and that is what has caused our over-the-top seller’s market to ease up lately. It’s a simple matter of supply versus demand. In my experience, it’s still a seller’s market, but it’s not nearly as lopsided as it was. Most buyers are having home inspections again, and I’ve even seen a home sale contingency or two. These are things that (buyers) were giving up in order to be competitive this past summer,’ she said.”

From Curbed New York. “Walk around midtown during the business day, and there are once again people on the streets — this isn’t the full lockdown of April 2020 — but the sandwich-and-salad spots are half-full and the street bustle is muted. It’s ‘a glut of inventory on the commercial side that we’ve really never seen before,’ said Marc Roman, the Douglas Elliman agent who is representing 483 Tenth Avenue. Around that building, ‘vacancy is in the 20 to 30 percent range.’ (It’s 20 percent at 483, roughly double what it was before the pandemic.)”

“And this, he added, was after rents for class B office space — that is, in serviceable older buildings without glitzy lobbies and amenities like 24-hour doormen — in the area dropped by about half, from about $60 per square foot annually to $35.”

From Bisnow London. “The general consensus from interviewees for the report was that the best-quality offices will maintain their rents and capital values, but for secondary assets, the future looks tough. ‘If you’re in tougher real estate, in secondary locations, it is brutal,’ one global fund manager said. If secondary assets do see values fall, the rerating could be quick and dramatic. One opportunity fund investor outlined how secondary offices may suffer a decline in values similar to that of retail, working on the basis that overall occupier demand could drop 20% because of new ways of working.”

“‘You might see 20 to 25% net rental declines for those buildings, and then you could see the cap rate shift up very quickly. You get the double whammy that happened in retail — rents 20% lower and 150 to 200 bps added to the cap rate — and your value is off 40%. And then if any of them have financing, they’re instantly [loan-to-value] under water, which is what happened in the whole retail sector.'”

From Domain News. “Australia’s property market is booming but there are some suburbs bucking the trend, with house prices falling by almost 13 per cent in some postcodes over the past year, new data shows. The inner-city suburb of Brunswick West saw house prices fall by 12.8 per cent over the year to September, the latest Domain House Price Report shows, to a median of $937,000. In North Melbourne, house prices fell 10.5 per cent to a median of $1.15 million.”

“Domain chief of economics and research Nicola Powell said price falls in more premium suburbs, like those in Perth, could start a ripple effect of price falls to other suburbs. ‘What’s really strong in the market cycle is you do get that ripple effect, when prices reach their peak they start to come off – the upper end leads this,’ she said. ‘So some of these more premium areas that have had double-digit price growth over the past year could see falls while other areas moderate.'”

From Jing Daily. “Evergrande, which drove much of China’s seemingly endless property boom, now finds itself saddled with a staggering $300 billion of debt from decades of unrestrained expansion. It also faces suppliers and creditors seeking hundreds of billions of dollars of unpaid bills, as well as more than 70,000 investors and stalled construction on apartments for more than one million home buyers who invested their life savings on the promise of a more prosperous future, which has turned sour.”

“And the hope of the calvary (Beijing) saving the day by bailing them out is looking more and more unlikely, as a government bailout would send the wrong message to a host of other Chinese companies that have grown rich via speculative ventures like Evergrande.”

“Given this, if the Chinese economy suffered some sort of collapse, what would the cost be for global luxury brands — or the world at large? What negative trickle-down effects would this unleash? And how would luxury brands have to pivot to remain profitable or, worst case, simply stay in business with China on tilt? The property market has been a key driver of economic growth in China since the mid-1990s and accounts for around a quarter of the Chinese economy by some metrics. If this goes south, China, and the wider world with it, will suddenly find itself not on shaky ground — but in quicksand. If that time comes, will China have enough buckets to bail out anything?”

The South China Morning Post. “Across China, poorly planned ghost towns filled with unsold homes or faux-historic architecture – part of an initiative meant to boost tourism and local revenue – are facing elimination as Beijing puts them under the microscope. The initiative to develop characteristic towns outside megacities was launched five years ago as part of China’s urbanisation push. Some were built to support manufacturing, esports and e-commerce, but many others looked to tourism, with local authorities keen on selling land and developing real estate – a practice that has long sustained local governments.”

“‘This development approach runs counter to the central government’s repeated warnings to not use the real estate market to stimulate economic growth,’ said Andy Chen, senior analyst with Trivium China, a Beijing-based policy consultancy. ‘Regulators have been tightening real estate developers’ financing channels through a series of policy measures and window guidance in the past two years. That’s why you see so many abandoned or suspended construction projects in these towns.'”

“Xueshan Art Town, located in the scenic city of Lijiang in Yunnan province, was built on land purchased from the local government for 163.5 million yuan in 2012, and the project pulled in 3.5 billion yuan worth of investment. Chinese actor Li Yapeng was among those enticed by what looked to be a lucrative investment.”

“He sank tens of millions of yuan into the town, which boasted picturesque views and quality architecture. But only about 30 private villas were sold in its first two years. Li was forced to sell his land stake to another developer in 2015, and he reportedly still has 40 million yuan (US$6.25 million) worth of debt from the failed real estate project. The new developer’s financial report showed that only 26 square metres of real estate were sold during the first half of 2020, accounting for less than a thousandth of the available space.”

“Many of these so-called characteristic towns have also been abandoned halfway through construction due to lack of funding, or they have faced bankruptcy due to a lack of visitors. Hu Meilin, manager of Shenzhen OCT Culture Group, said during an interview with the National Business Daily that real estate companies jumped on the bandwagon to rapidly develop these characteristic towns, but none of them are particularly successful, and ‘basically 90 per cent of them were doomed to fail.'”

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This Post Has 125 Comments

  1. ‘Everyone is trying to figure out what’s going on. I want to know if the repayment might be accelerated. Will I be protected? I’m not taking a loss in just three months’

    Annnnd it’s gone.

    2. “The speed of the turnaround is remarkable given the company had raised over US$1bn in the securitisation market in the last three months to help finance its home-flipping plans.”

      “Its first ever “i-Buyer” deal in August raised US$450m and was followed by another offering that took in US$700m in September. Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs …”

      Goldman Sachs. What a shocker.

      “… and Citigroup …”

      Another shocker.

      “… were the joint bookrunners on both issues, which were upsized due to strong investor demand. Credit Suisse is also the warehouse lender for the two deals. Goldman and Citigroup have credit lines with Zillow.”

      And now for the best part …

      “Market players speculate that private equity firms with single-family rental operations like Blackstone and residential rental REITs such as Invitational Homes could easily take homes off Zillow’s hands.”

      😁

      1. “Annnnd it’s gone.”

        The dumb money is gone but the money-making machines, the houses, remain intact.

        Time will pass and then another herd of totally dumbed-down ignorant steeple will be lured into flocking into the shearing arenas for some serious (and painful) shearing.

        Stay tuned.

  2. ‘If we do see a dip in pricing, I don’t really think it’s because the market’s going down’

    It’s already down Veronica. Talking to these UHS is pointless.

  3. ‘amid cooling home prices, the company has asked for less than what it paid for 63 percent of the 155 Houston homes it hoped to sell, according to Business Insider. If the company were to sell all of the listings at price, it would face a median loss of $12,576 per home’

    Plus rehab and Magic 8 ball operators.

  4. ‘A buyside source familiar with the Zillow RMBS said it had been too early for Zillow to tap the RMBS market – especially considering the complex structure and unstable cashflows. But many fund managers had been eager to own paper backed by a higher-yielding asset, even if was unproven. ‘The reach for yield and a kind of leap of faith from debt investors rarely make a good combination’

    Sound lending!

  5. ‘So some of these more premium areas that have had double-digit price growth over the past year could see falls while other areas moderate’

    Could see? It’s already down double digits Nicola. What’s more, this is exactly what happened in 2017. Oh but Australia and K-da haven’t seen lower prices in 30 years! Sure.

  6. ‘none of them are particularly successful, and ‘basically 90 per cent of them were doomed to fail’

    Eat yer crowz Dan. Remember when these things popped up? Copies of long past UK villages, an Eiffel tower. Probably a Hobbit deal somewhere. Problem is they are hemorrhaging cash. Could pooh bear be broke?

    People would get marriage photos taken there, and at night it would be empty.

    1. I was always rather amused at the Chinese culturally appropriating almost everything Western (on top of all the IP theft). At one point they even recorded a song that sounded remarkably like “Let It Go.”

      1. “culturally appropriating almost everything Western”

        Seems like they have a bad case of culture envy.

  8. One year ago today, Real Journalists declared the coronation of known pedophile Joe Biden to be unlawfully installed in the White House.

    That afternoon and evening, the contagion of COVID was temporarily suspended (because The Science™) for the celebration.

    President Donald J. Trump was, in fact, correct, when he said that “the media is the enemy of the American people.”

    2. Ewwwww, icky!

      Joe Biden or the new Mr Trump? Camilla ‘hasn’t stopped talking about’ hearing the President ‘break wind’ during chat at Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10172959/Camilla-stopped-talking-hearing-President-break-wind-chat-Cop26-summit.html

      He is supposed to be committed to reducing emissions – but when President Joe Biden produced a little natural gas of his own at the COP26 summit, it was audible enough to make the Duchess of Cornwall blush.

      An informed source has told The Mail on Sunday that Camilla was taken aback to hear Biden break wind as they made polite small talk at the global climate change gathering in Glasgow last week.

      ‘It was long and loud and impossible to ignore,’ the source said. ‘Camilla hasn’t stopped talking about it.’

      1. Interesting how they weren’t masked up, even though they are geezers and at “high risk”. Maybe they got Harry Potter to expel the virus from the room?

      3. Camilla hasn’t stopped talking about it

        What is she, a 12-year-old boy? I would have expected better of the consort to the future King of England, especially after decades of working the hand-waving circuit. She should not be talking about this at all.

        (and given the rumors coming rom the Vatican, I have some doubts about whether it was “wind.”)

        2. She simply exteriorized what all other European leadership is thinking: That Brandon is unfit to be President. I honestly don’t see how he can make it to 2024.

  9. Some background on the wounded commie set to testify in the Kyle Rittenhouse trial this week (1/7/2021):

    “The Milwaukee County DA Charged Grosskreutz with a civil forfeiture for refusing to take test for intoxication after arrest. Second OWIs in Wisconsin are criminal and appear on a background check. He originally had a court date scheduled for March 12, 2021. Then, sometime in December, that date was postponed at the request of the Milwaukee DA’s office. That date is now January 1, 2022, or later. We reached out to both DA’s to ask why the special treatment was given. We didn’t hear back from Graveley, leading to speculation that this was a handshake deal to help assist in the prosecution of Kyle Rittenhouse.”

    http://kenoshacountyeye.com/2021/01/07/man-with-arm-shot-off-by-kyle-rittenhouse-is-arrested-for-second-dui-corruption-suspected-with-special-treatment/

    And the commie’s rapsheet, it’s 92 pages long (warning: PDF file):

    http://www.kenoshacountyeye.com/gaige.pdf

    “They’re not sending their best”

      1. Antifa, the Democrat Party, and the Lincoln Project *all* have a pedophilia problem.

        A vote for Democrat Party is a vote for raping kidz.

          1. ‘Loudoun County is in the northern part of the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States. In 2020, the population census at 420,959, making it Virginia’s third-most populous county. Loudoun County’s seat is Leesburg.’

  11. New York Post — Border officials secretly sent 70 planes of migrants to Florida: DeSantis office (11/6/2021):

    “The US has sent over 70 flights of migrants from the Mexican border to Jacksonville, Florida since the summer — but the Biden administration has not disclosed any information about the clandestine transports, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office claimed.

    The alleged flights — which landed in overnight hours — come as officials struggle to deal with overcrowding at border facilities …

    The disclosure comes on the heels of an exclusive Post report that found similar flights full of young migrants arriving in Westchester County Airport under the cover of night.”

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/06/desantis-office-claims-border-officials-secretly-sent-70-planes-of-migrants-to-florida/

    Hundreds of thousands of military age males entering this country is not a migration, it’s an INVASION.

    Globalists gonna globe.

    2. This is not representative of the people of the US. This is an illegitimate fraud outfit, working to destroy the country from within.

  12. A pearl-clutching article from American Pravda. People in the rural areas have had their fill of commies & globalist minions.

    Local Democrats warn party: Growing Republican wave is real

    https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-race-and-ethnicity-racial-injustice-philadelphia-elections-3420f14ee42f95907b316438585ed4a8

    NEW HOPE, Pa. (AP) — The Democrats of Bucks County, Pennsylvania, felt the red wave building over the summer when frustrated parents filled school board meetings to complain about masking requirements and an academic theory on systemic racism that wasn’t even taught in local schools.

    They realized the wave was growing when such concerns, fueled by misleading reports on conservative media, began showing up in unrelated elections for judges, sheriff and even the county recorder of deeds. And so they were not surprised — but devastated all the same — when Democrats all across this key county northeast of Philadelphia were wiped out in Tuesday’s municipal elections.

    1. Washington Post — Democrats again lament their weakness in rural areas, but they don’t have an answer to the problem (11/6/2021):

      https://archive.md/IQyQU

      New York Times — Democrats Thought They Bottomed Out in Rural, White America. It Wasn’t the Bottom (11/6/2021):

      https://archive.md/SuaAs

      No article excerpts needed, it’s the same, stale, anti-White narrative that has become so boringly predictable from these globalist rags, rags for which we do not generate clicks or revenue, Archive links provided because we read them for free.

  13. ‘Everyone is trying to figure out what’s going on. I want to know if the repayment might be accelerated. Will I be protected? I’m not taking a loss in just three months,’ said one investor who participated in the debut issue, ZH Trust 2021-1.”

    Pop over to the HBB, Zillow baggies, and we’ll help you figure things out in a jiffy. Bottom line: color your money gone.

    1. ’m not taking a loss in just three months,’ said one investor
      Hate to break it to you but; Yeah you are.
      On the bright side, looks like you will probably be able to write your loss off in 2021.

  14. If the company were to sell all of the listings at price, it would face a median loss of $12,576 per home, according to the analysis. As home prices stopped rising in several major markets, the company’s hopes for profit turned into damage control.”

    Think of the housing market in terms of a rocket with the Fed’s gusher of fake money as its booster & sustainer fuel. Once the rocket hits apogee, we know what happens next. Gravity is not your friend, Zillow “investors.”

  16. ‘If we do see a dip in pricing, I don’t really think it’s because the market’s going down. I think we’re going to start seeing a lot more negotiation power and people exchanging time and peace of mind for money.’”

    “Now would be the worst possible time to buy, since the housing bubble has burst and the downside risk vastly outweighs any upside potential,” said no realtor ever.

    1. There is actually one realtor on YouTube who’s been sounding the alarm. I’m surprised he hasn’t been disappeared. Scott Walters is his name.

        1. Been watching Scott. Thanks for the recommendation on Jeremiah. I find this stuff pretty good entertainment while waiting for the real fireworks to begin.

    2. “‘If we do see a dip in pricing, I don’t really think it’s because the market’s going down.“

      So a dip doesn’t mean the market went down?
      Realtors are dumb liars.

    1. If they think their hospitals are full of people who are inexplicably ill, they ain’t seen nothing yet.

      1. I am taking a multi-vitamin, vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, fish oil, and a baby aspirin daily (vitamin D especially important now with daylight saving time ending) through the winter.

        And I will never take another vaccine for anything for the rest of my life. Not that the CCP Flu vaccine is an actual vaccine.

        This Scamdemic is such a fraud…

        1. “Non-accredited journalists” who ask globalist Quislings legit questions the lapdog media won’t touch are “hecklers” who should be sent away for re-education or involuntary commitment on mental health grounds. Challenging The Narrative, after all, is clear evidence of Defiant Oppositional Personality Syndrome or some such thing, and such “extremists” clearly pose a threat to society.

          Heckler forces New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to abandon press conference

          https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/heckler-forces-new-zealand-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-abandon-press-conference/news-story/09818903bb029e70562bfe196cabb6b3

          Jacinda Ardern shuts down press conference after being hammered with questions by a non-accredited member of the media about why the vaccine wasn’t working in Israel.

        2. So, Dr McCullough said something like that it takes 15 months to clear out these excess spike proteins created by the jab. I was happy to hear that time gives some clearance of this junk. But if you keep taking booster shot after booster shot that’s just loading the body up and making it more difficult for the body to rid itself of these gone haywire spikes. This is my take on what he said of course.

          1. Dr McCullough said something like that it takes 15 months to clear out these excess spike proteins created by the jab

            I hope he’s right, for the sake of many, many people I know. Unfortunately, many of them already got the booster.

          2. That plus the talk of the immune system weakening effect being cumulative. We have more questions than answers.

          4. Excellent 2m2s video!!

            “Permanent install of an inflammatory, damaging protein in the human body”

            “the gain-of-function research allowed the virus to invade the human body”

          5. A coworker recently got the booster. He told me that he felt awful after getting it, even worse than after the second jab. I wonder if he will get the inevitable fourth jab, or wonder if it do him in.

    2. In watching the Florida Forum of Drs talking about all aspects of Covid, I found out that religious and medical exemptions are being turned down .
      They are doing this based on some outdated case where they deny you if you have had any medical procedures means you must not be sincere with you request for religious exemption.
      In other words, if you relied on any other medical procedures or even had dental work, you real reason for wanting exemption isn’t religious but rather you just think medically it could do harm.
      I don’t know what hurdles you have to jump to get a medical exemption, but a lot of those are being turned down also.
      The Amish , who won’t take vaccines, probably couldn’t pass their religious exemption. The Amish are all immune with natural immunity. They aren’t recognizing getting Covid and having natural immunity as a exemption either.
      World gone mad.

      2. religious and medical exemptions

        Cued to the presentation for those interested.

        based on some outdated case

        Based on existing case law that shapes legal arguments and application of case-specific facts. Without legal counsel, people are conflating medical and religious arguments and being denied an exemption.

        1. Wouldn’t saying that the Archbishop of Rome said the cells derived from aborted babies was a just objection satisfy?

          1. I believe that the FedGov requirement is “strongly held” religious beliefs. That is, it’s not enough for a Church to say no to a vaccine. You would have to prove, individually, that you were an active member of that Church. For example, by providing donation receipts dated before the pandemic. Otherwise, they would get a whole host of people who suddenly discovered that they were religious, just to avoid the mandate.

          6. IIRC, Archbishop Vigano has said that there is a “Deep Church”. Maybe those Society of Saint Pius X guys weren’t wrong.

        2. But what if a person just found religion, and they don’t go to any organized church, but they believe in God and their God or religion doesn’t believe in vaccines.
          In other words , can’t a person have a religious belief without being involved in a organized religion?
          As far as medical exemptions go the speaker didn’t get into the medical exemptions .
          And what if you think vaccines violate Mother Nature, and you believe that the laws of Mother Nature were given by the creator God ?
          What is their definition of Religion anyway?
          This isn’t even a justified Pandemic anyway, and the call that it was a global Pandemic was based on bogus tests and the Covid death counts being false, and a bunch of false projections of death counts, and fear mongering.
          They suppressed drugs that worked so as to push the one solution vaccines, at the expense of thousands of deaths.
          13 thousand Drs and Scientist just put in objection to the vaccination of children.
          When can people people protect themselves from Big Pharmacy , who doesn’t give a rats ass about the death and injury they are causing.

          1. Ok, I think what should be the operative question is can one be forced to take a emergency use vaccine that hasn’t gone through 7 to 10 years of testing. It’s the issue of a new technology vaccine that so far looks like one big failure.
            What ever happened to Informed Consent , which implies that you have the option of not consenting if you don’t like the side effects , or whatever you don’t like about the product.
            80 million employed people are under risk of losing job because Biden makes these Mandates.
            Have they ever made mandates like this before in the entire history of vaccines, with a new technology untested by time Vaccine?
            And Booster shot after booster shot that they don’t know long term effects either.
            The concept of Public Health should not be that your a lab rat for a Big Pharmacy that has no liability for what they produce.
            The Media censoring dispute to the vaccine is a form of suppression of informed consent . Biden and the rest saying the jabs are safe and effective is not informed consent, and its a big lie.
            Dr Fauci is a evil Dictator , and why the Guy who funded gain of function with a foreign Country, that unleashed this virus is the Spokesperson for the Pandemic is beyond belief.

          4. “In other words , can’t a person have a religious belief without being involved in a organized religion?”

            I raised a similar question as a sixth grade student at a religious grade school I attended as a child. According to my teacher, who was the school principal, the answer was no.

          7. IIRC, COVID jabs skipped animal testing. That was the second red flag for me. The first red flag was coding for the spike protein.

          8. The first red flag was coding for the spike protein.

            I did some looking around, and it seems that all Covid vaxxes do the spike protein thing, not the the 3 approved by the FDA.

            I also read that people in other countries, who maybe got the Sputnik, or one of the Chinese vaxxes, don’t count as officially immunized by the US government and thus won’t be allowed to enter the US (unless they do so illegally, then it’s welcome pilgrim). I read that many of these people are scrambling to find a Pfiizer, Moderna or J&J vaccine in their countries, just so the can visit the US.

          10. different vaccines for different coronaviruses, IIRC

            Indeed, but the same mRNA technique. That’s why none of this mRNA stuff got out of the gate in the past. Moderna was about to go under IIRC.

          11. Target validation and characterization in the drug development process typically takes 1-3 years. The spike protein was chosen in haste. Dr. Malone has spoken about this; he spoke to the head of Operation Warp Speed. If I can remember which of his many interviews has that bit of information I’ll post it.

          12. but the same mRNA technique

            No, the technique was used for gene therapy but Moderna had problems with repeated doses so turned to vaccines.

        3. Sorry I used the word outdated because for me so much of case law now doesn’t correlate with the situation at hand. Emergency Use new technology vaccine not time tested being mandated by the President. Can’t help but think this is a new ball of wax . What the Nazis did comes close to this assault on people in my view.

    3. The LA Times published an article yesterday about the diminishing efficacy of the 3 brands of jabs. At a certain point, it’s impossible to dupe people anymore about these sham “vaccines.” Over 85% of people, vaxxed or unvaxxed, are opposed to a 4th “booster.” Jab fatigue, coming on strong.

      1. Is that the VA paper where J&J decreased down to 3%? Did that ever make it through peer review? The most recent I read was that the researchers didn’t correct the unvaccinated cohort for prior infection. That would have skewed the effectiveness number WAY low, especially for a low sample size for J&J.* Another big issue is that their idea of “infection” was a positive PCR test — you know, the test that anti-vaxxers say wildly inflates the number of cases via false positives. So that paper is extremely unreliable. The paper’s data contradicts all of what J&J published, and all of the breakthrough data coming from the states.

        ————
        *J&J always suffered from low sample sizes. And since the patients at the VA tend to skew older, it’s more likely that they would have been given Pf or MOd even before J&J was approved, decreasing the J&J sample size even more.

  19. “But many fund managers …”

    Fund managers: Those who collect hefty fees for handling other people’s money.

    “… had been eager to own paper backed by a higher-yielding asset, even if was unproven.”

    But the risk they were taking was not theirs because the money that was being used was not theirs.

    “‘The reach for yield and a kind of leap of faith from debt investors rarely make a good combination,’ the source said.”

    “leap of faith”

    Bahahahahahahahahahahahaha. These money managing pukes had to keep dancing because the music kept on playing. If they walked off the dance floor then the dumb-assed investors would merely latch onto another dance partner and poof would go their hefty fees.

  20. Vice mayor found no concrete in paving/Bamboo sheets replace steel bars/They all cutting corners

    Why are there so many tofu-dreg projects in China? According to an article published in the Daily Economic News of mainland China, the author claims that he used to work in a construction administration department for years. Thus he knows some of the “dark secrets” involved in the construction industry. The construction money has to pay for materials, labor and management fees, etc.

    Due to the fierce competition in the market, the profit from a construction project is tiny, and even if the entire construction fund is used for the construction, the profit is usually less than 10%. If “one-third of the project money is used for bribes”, the only way to still make a profit is to cut corners on a large scale, or purchase inferior materials, or default on labor costs.

    This is only one of the reasons for the proliferation of tofu-dreg projects in China.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RElGXLwWTvI

    9:30. Jeebus, it’s worse than I ever imagined. Putting down roads/parking with no concrete under them? Fake rebar?

    1. I’ve been following the ADVChina channel on youtube. They have some good on-the-ground videos touring around China from a few years ago. They’re not financially savvy, but they did a good recap recently:
      Why Evergrande Collapsed – Our Chinese Houses Crumbled:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKbLB_T-IjY

  21. “That enabled her to successfully negotiate her family’s purchase to about $37,000 below the list price by pointing to other houses listed for sale in a less attractive part of Duarte. ‘Had the agent been local, they would know not to compare this house from those, because this house is in the best neighborhood,’ Aguayo said.”

    Aguayo in November 2021- “I’m such a real estate genius.”
    Aguayo in April 2022- “I’m such an idiot. Why did I buy in a sh!thole like Duarte!?”

  22. Despite all the Social Justice and BLM rhetoric I finally broke down and attended a football game yesterday. My buddies kid who plays on the10 and under Jupiter team lost their playoff game to a team from Miami-Dade by a score of 14 to 12.

    Despite this the most interesting part of my day happened after the game when I continued a few miles further South to escape the high or higher gas prices in Jupiter for the bargain price of $3.25 a gallon which could be had at a Speedway on North Lake Blvd.

    After arriving at the Speedway I walked into the store to pay the attendant where I found a man of what I believe was Middle eastern dissent yelling at the girl behind the counter because he couldn’t get his credit card to work at the pump as he was turning to walk out the door yelling threats of calls to corporate offices and never going to any Speedway ever again. I looked at the girl who had a look of shock on her face and said… screw him, if he can’t move to one of the other 14 pumps and try his rejected credit card that’s his problem. To which a look of relief and shy smile appeared on her face.

    But wait. there’s more.

    I had what I thought was just over a quarter of a tank of gas in a 20 gallon gas tank so I handed the now relieved girl $60 in cash and told her I didn’t think it would take it all but I assured her if the pump did not work I would not come back in and yell at her to which she laughed and thanked me.

    I then walked back out to my truck and started pumping the gas. While I was putting the gas in, two gentleman of what I believe was Haitian decent (not sure but a couple of black dudes anyway) had pulled 2 vehicles up on the other side of the pump I was using and both started putting gas in their vehicles and talking to each other. During this time and while I was checking messages on my phone my pump clicked off reading $60 I said not loud but audibly… SOB, a year ago thirty bucks would have filled that damn tank from where it was. At that point one of he two black guys said to the other while pointing at their pump… Hey Mon, look at this! I looked at them and said ya, you know what caused that, It was then I remembered that last week my neighbor had given me one more https://www.amazon.com/Stickers-Sticker-Diamond-Reflective-Waterproof/dp/B09DD41B2K so I opened my truck door, grabbed the sticker, walked it over to the two black guys and said,,, This is what did that, To which they replied… That’s right, it wasn’t like this when Trump was in. Can I have that? Even though it was the only one I had I replied… Absolutely!

    Saw my neighbor when I got home and told him what had happened. I now have 10 more https://www.amazon.com/Stickers-Sticker-Diamond-Reflective-Waterproof/dp/B09DD41B2K stickers in my truck.

    Here’s wishing you all a productive NFL Free and thus Social Justice Warrior Free Sunday.

    Let’s Go Brandon!

      1. It’s across the street from the two houses that proudly displayed Biden signs during the election.

        1. “It’s across the street from the two houses that proudly displayed Biden signs during the election.”

          Classic

          It’s good to let the millions of Biden voters along with the tens of millions of nonexistent and deceased Biden voters what they have done.

  23. Axis of Evil: Dr. Fauci and Hillary Clinton Cozy Up During Funeral

    Infowars.com
    November 7th 2021, 11:17 am

    Dr. Anthony Fauci and Hillary Clinton appeared to reunite like two long-lost lovers during Colin Powell’s funeral on Friday.

    A photo taken at the event shows the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director and former secretary of state beaming at each other and sharing a tender embrace before the funeral service.

    One wonders what they could be talking about: perhaps Fauci’s attempts to cover up his funding of gain of function research in China, or possibly how Clinton managed to get away with destabilizing Donald Trump’s presidency with a fake Russia collusion narrative.

    In any case, they certainly appear delighted to share in each other’s company for the solemn occasion.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/axis-of-evil-dr-fauci-and-hillary-clinton-cozy-up-during-funeral/

  24. “This comes just days after Granholm burst into laughter and blamed OPEC when asked if America would ever ramp up oil production to offset the skyrocketing costs.”

    Biden’s Energy Secretary Says ‘Yes,’ Americans Will Pay More to Heat Their Homes This Winter

    Infowars.com
    November 7th 2021, 12:02 pm

    Joe Biden’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm admitted Sunday that Americans will be paying more to heat their homes this winter due to soaring fuel costs.

    CNN”s Dana Bash asked her: “Should Americans — it will likely be a cold winter, most of them are, expect to pay higher prices for heating their homes?”

    Granholm immediately said “yes” but Americans should be grateful because Europeans will be paying much more.

    “Yes. This is going to happen. It will be more expensive this year than last year,” Granholm confessed. “We are in a slightly beneficial position, certainly relative to Europe, because their chokehold of natural gas is significant. They’ll pay five times higher.”

    When asked if gas prices could rise to an average $4 a gallon, Granholm revealed she didn’t know but to rest assured because Biden was “all over” the issue.

    “Well, we certainly hope not,” Granholm replied. “The president is all over this. Of course, every president is frustrated because they can’t control the price of gasoline, because it’s a global market. You can call upon increased supply, which he has done.”

    ranholm blamed the rising fuel costs on energy companies not “flipping the switch” rather than Biden’s administration shutting down domestic energy production.

    “We have the same problem in fuels that the supply chains have, which is that the oil and gas companies are not flipping the switch as quickly as the demand requires.”

    Have an important tip? Let us know.
    EMAIL US HERE.
    Joe Biden’s Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm admitted Sunday that Americans will be paying more to heat their homes this winter due to soaring fuel costs.

    CNN”s Dana Bash asked her: “Should Americans — it will likely be a cold winter, most of them are, expect to pay higher prices for heating their homes?”

    Granholm immediately said “yes” but Americans should be grateful because Europeans will be paying much more.

    “Yes. This is going to happen. It will be more expensive this year than last year,” Granholm confessed. “We are in a slightly beneficial position, certainly relative to Europe, because their chokehold of natural gas is significant. They’ll pay five times higher.”

    When asked if gas prices could rise to an average $4 a gallon, Granholm revealed she didn’t know but to rest assured because Biden was “all over” the issue.

    “Well, we certainly hope not,” Granholm replied. “The president is all over this. Of course, every president is frustrated because they can’t control the price of gasoline, because it’s a global market. You can call upon increased supply, which he has done.”

    Granholm blamed the rising fuel costs on energy companies not “flipping the switch” rather than Biden’s administration shutting down domestic energy production.

    “We have the same problem in fuels that the supply chains have, which is that the oil and gas companies are not flipping the switch as quickly as the demand requires.”

    “So that’s why the president has been focused on both the immediate term and the long-term. Let us get off of the volatility associated with fossil fuels and associated with others who don’t have our country’s interests at heart and invest in moving to clean energy where we will not have this problem, and that’s so much of what the two bills are focused on.”

    This comes just days after Granholm burst into laughter and blamed OPEC when asked if America would ever ramp up oil production to offset the skyrocketing costs.

    “That is hilarious!” she cackled during a Bloomberg interview on Friday. “Would that I had a magic wand on this. As you know, of course, oil is a global market, it is controlled by a cartel. That cartel is called OPEC and they made a decision yesterday that they were not going to increase beyond what they were already planning.”

    https://www.infowars.com/

    1. “Granholm immediately said “yes” but Americans should be grateful because Europeans will be paying much more.”

      You should be grateful that you’re not being raped as badly (yet) as the Europeans are by Chappaqua, New York Martha’s Vineyard private jet flying Filet Mignon eating Globalists in the name of Climate Change.

    2. I apologize

      The double copy happens to me from that site occasionally and I’m sure it’s probably something of my own doing.

    4. When asked if gas prices could rise to an average $4 a gallon, Granholm revealed she didn’t know but to rest assured because Biden was “all over” the issue.

      I find that oddly non-comforting. Will Biden fire Jerome Powell and do whatever is in his power to do to force the Fed to hike interest rates and curb its deranged money printing that is fueling soaring inflation? Will he start showing some fiscal responsibility on our out-of-control government spending that is weakening the dollar? I don’t think so.

  25. all that bruha over Trillions when a simple 25- 50 cent gas tax would accomplish much more quicker

    Before 2008, highway tax revenue dedicated to the trust fund was sufficient to pay for outlays from the fund, but that has not been true in recent years. Since 2008, Congress has sustained highway spending by transferring over $140 billion of general revenues to the fund, including $70 billion in the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act in 2015.

    https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-highway-trust-fund-and-how-it-financed

    1. “The current tax rates are 18.4 cents per gallon for gasoline and ethanol-blended fuels and 24.4 cents per gallon for diesel (0.1 cent of each tax is dedicated to the Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund). The tax rates on motor fuels have not changed since 1993 and thus have failed to keep pace with inflation.”

      The tax rates have failed to to keep up with inflation because the taxes are calculated on quantities of consumption and not on the price.

      A sales tax will keep up with inflation because a sales tax is associated with the price; With a sales tax as the price goes up the tax revenue goes up. This is not so with an excise tax based on consumed quantities.

      In recent years there has been a big push to increase miles-per-gallon so it follows that consumption would fall off, and since gasoline excise taxes are levied against consumption it is logical to think that these tax revenues would also fall off.

  28. Can someone splain to me what real journalists would have done to President Donald Trump if he was asked if his administration planned to pay $450,000 to $1m to each undocumented immigrant family that was affected by the last administration policies and if that would incentivise more people to come over illegally and he responded…

    “If you guys keep sending that garbage out. Yeah. But it’s not true.”

    Then asked in a follow up…. “So it’s a garbage report?”

    To which he responded… “Yeah. That’s not going to happen.”

    and then 2 days later said,,,

    “If, in fact, because of the outrageous behavior of the last administration, you coming across the border, whether it was legally or illegally, and you lost your child — You lost your child. It’s gone — you deserve some kind of compensation, no matter what the circumstance,” “What that will be I have no idea. I have no idea.”

    I’m guessing DJT would have received slightly harsher treatment from the real journalists than President Brandon has.

  29. If you had any doubts about the FJB chants at college football, it’s real. Just talked to a super from an old job. He’s a Nittany Lion nut and doesn’t miss a Penn state game and gets to OH state games too. He said they’re very real and very loud.

    I wonder how NBA season will be considering they’re smaller inside venues.

  30. I am blue. Just got notice that our rent is being raised. Saw that coming with all the local articles about rents rising to the moon here in Las Vegas.
    A little insulting since we’ve been waiting since August to have our garage ceiling repaired. When it fell, my husband and I got a lung full of 1968 desiccated insulation, not to mention everything in the garage is now covered in it. A trim piece fell from the ceiling a few feet from me recently. PM says owner is comparing quotes from abatement companies and wants to know if I’ve heard from them. The granules/dust have been analyzed and I assume it’s asbestos we’ve been breathing (they’re not volunteering information) since they’re checking these companies. With the raise, I guess we’ll be paying the LL’s costs. They also say the rent’s late, they always say it is, but it’s not, long been sent.
    Friend manages a 2 bd/2ba small house with an HOA☹️ (would be only $300K! after getting them down a bit). Wants to know if we’re interested in buying. What I’m really interested in is moving out of here (Las Vegas).
    I’d also have to get rid of my pets, which seemed to amuse both her and my brother that I was not on board with that. I didn’t see the humor. I hate people.

      1. You sound like you’re at the end of your rope. Why don’t you bail and go to a less insane location?

        1. I’ll perk up. Need parathyroid op.(should help mood.) Had radiaion, was operated for cancer a year ago; just got off chemo (I joke that now I have Schrödinger’s Cancer since you only know if it’s back from scan to scan.) H and I have building up to “War of the Roses” level since he’s home all the time.
          Met my long-time friend in NYC two weeks ago. She’s just bought a house in South Carolina and gave the hard sell to move there. I’d go but hubby has reverted back to wanting to be buried in the back yard, or weirdly, moving to the NW.
          Well, I’ve got to shake all this off and just deal with each problem, one by one.

          1. Good Lord Tarara

            If good thoughts and prayers help (which I have seen happen) yours are on the way.

            As far as dealing with each problem one by one, that’s how I have stayed clean and sober for over 32 years, one problem at a time and one day at a time.

          2. one problem at a time
            Thanks, jeff. Don’t know why I was so down last night, it sometimes gets a little much (e.g. I live with two people who are incapable of answering a question without equivocating or helping at all for that matter, but what else is new.)
            Nervy of LL to ask for a rent increase with us possibly inhaling God knows what coming and going. Typical.

          4. Thanks, RR. First found out March 2020, right before Covid and all. Felt weird, did my usual – curled in a ball and told everyone to leave me alone. When I realized it was serious, doctors were closed. But that really wasn’t it. I just hate to go to doctors, they p!ss me off.

            To round off my morning, the abatement co rep just showed up along with the LL (not a pleasure to meet her.) She said she wanted to be sure I’m keeping the backyard clean. It’s dirt and scrub. She wants me to keep it weed-free. She’s a psycho. I’d like her to fix the giant hole in the garage ceiling and clean up the asbestos we’ve been walking through for the last three months. What a bitch.

  31. Don’t you just love those spooky financial market conditions that habitually show up in October, just in time for Halloween?

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Unhedged
      A different kind of housing bubble
      Plus Icarus markets, and Lael Brainard
      Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu yesterday

      Good morning. I have eaten all the Halloween candy and I am crashing, which helps explain the generally bearish tone of today’s letter. Perhaps my bullishness will increase with the approach of Thanksgiving? Email me at robert.armstrong@ft.com or Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

      What kind of real estate bubble is this, anyway?

      One of the common responses to the meltdown at Zillow’s home buying business last week was to suggest it was one of those ominous events that signals the end of a euphoric market. The analogy used by a colleague of mine was the blow up of two Bear Stearns-backed hedge funds in the summer of 2007.

      This response makes sense, inasmuch as the wild house price moves that pushed Zillow out of the house flipping business track, to a degree, wildness in other markets — paradigmatically the stock market. Here, for example, is the stock market charted against median existing home prices from the National Association of Realtors (data through September):

      [SPOOKY AND BAD CHART]

      This, I admit, is a suspect chart. Both lines show year over year per cent change, but I plotted them on different scales to make them overlap more. Furthermore, there are times (including most of the early-mid 2000s) when the lines go opposite directions. But the two price series sure do come together when things are going batty, and now sure does seem to be one of those times.

      So, if you accept the analogy, markets in general are euphoric; something spooky and bad happened to a leveraged player in housing; so maybe we need to worry about not only housing, but other markets like stocks, too.

      (If one was looking for spooky things to deepen the analogy, one might also point out that homebuilders stocks are now well above their 2005 highs, but seem to have rolled over in May and look a little wobbly here.)
      …

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